Illustration: Xia Qing/GT

The Universal Postal Union (UPU) - the UN specialized agency for global postal cooperation - has started deploying a solution to help postal operators resume deliveries to the US after postal traffic to the country dipped more than 80 percent following its suspension of the duty-free de minimis exemption, effective August 29, the UPU said in a press release on Saturday.

A total of 88 postal operators informed the UPU they had suspended some or all postal services to the US until a solution was implemented, highlighting the widespread impact of the US executive order eliminating the de minimis exemption for low-value goods, according to the release.

In just one week of implementation, this US policy has already pushed postal flows to the US to nearly a standstill, causing immediate severe disruption to inbound e-commerce flows. Even if the UPU quickly resolves the chaotic situation and resumes the logistics flow, the negative impacts on US businesses and consumers are expected to expand, which will cause losses to the US e-commerce sector and the broader economy.

While global e-commerce is booming on a high-growth, innovation-driven trajectory - one that demands low friction, tech integration, global participation and strong consumer access - abrupt US protectionist moves, such as de minimis revocation and tariff escalation - clash with global e-commerce trends of speed, cost efficiency and cross-border flows. Although the US policies are designed to protect the US domestic industry, they will further disrupt and hinder its domestic e-commerce.

The duty-free de minimis threshold for small packages in the US has long existed as a trade facilitation measure. This threshold was raised from the original $200 to $800 in 2016. The policy greatly simplified customs clearance procedures, reduced transaction costs for US consumers and businesses, and promoted the development of international e-commerce platforms as well as postal and courier services.

Besides the immediate disruption to inbound e-commerce flows, the changes brought by Washington's policy will further drive consumer prices up, especially for low-cost purchases. Even if these packages enter the US, American consumers and related businesses will still face delivery delays and price increases, as some foreign cross-border e-commerce sellers may choose to stop selling to the US market because of the high tariffs.

The scale of the damage is massive. A total of 1.36 billion de minimis shipments entered the US in 2024, US media outlet NPR reported, citing data released by the US Customs and Border Protection in January, so even a partial interruption or re-pricing materially reduces cross-border flows and consumer choice.

Beyond the direct damage to the interests of US consumers and businesses, what is more important is that by canceling the tariff exemption, the US is forfeiting its competitiveness in the emerging field of cross-border e-commerce. Although the US domestic consumer market is huge and multinational companies continue to target this opportunity, America's losses may still be immeasurable. What is being missed is not just a few days' worth of packages, but the next high-speed train of global e-commerce.

The Yale Economic Governance Center estimates projected consumer welfare losses on the order of $10.9 billion if de minimis exception was eliminated. From a broader supply chain perspective, US cross-border e-commerce will face even greater losses. Due to high tariffs and policy uncertainty, US retailers predict that US imports will further weaken in 2025. 

Recent US e-commerce and tariff policies, particularly the removal of duty-free thresholds and tariff hikes, are clearly contrary to the trends in global trade cooperation - they introduce friction, reduce access, and don't align with well-established market norms or WTO frameworks.

In response to the US' decision to suspend the tariff exemption on low-value packages, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun noted that "we hope the US will follow the market principle of fair competition and provide a fair, just and non-discriminatory environment for companies from all countries including China."

This scenario underscores how unilateral trade barriers risk isolating the US from the broader digital marketplace. As global e-commerce accelerates through innovation and cross-border integration, restrictive tariff policies may diminish US competitiveness and consumer welfare. To boost the domestic sector, the US needs to recalibrate its approach toward cooperation, rules-based trade and sustainable engagement with international partners.

The author is a reporter with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn