Soybean Photo: VCG

US soybean unlikely to regain its lost market share as China continues to diversify its purchases from other countries, according to a study report by Oxford Economics, a global economic advisory firm, shared with the Global Times on Wednesday.

"China's increasing policy emphasis on food security will only encourage continued development of trading relations with alternative suppliers, whilst maintaining healthy domestic stockpiles," said the report.

The pivot to South American producers has been supported by a rapid expansion in production in recent years — Brazilian and Argentinian production together has increased by more than a third since 2017/18 while US output levels have stagnated, according to the report. 

As a result of these disparities in production growth, the US share of the global market has slipped to 28 percent in 2024/25 from 35 percent in 2017/18 while Brazil and Argentina have raised their share to 52 percent from 47 percent, said the report.

Therefore, the report estimated that China would continue to diversify its purchases with the US unlikely to regain its lost market share.

The report also suggested that "US soybean prices are still too high to be attractive to Chinese buyers compared to Brazilian alternatives, downward pressure on US prices is likely to remain."

"We expect US soybean prices to average just over $10.10 per bushel in Q42025 with prices likely to dip below the $10 threshold as sentiment deteriorates on weak US export prospects," the report said, noting that there is a risk that worsening market sentiment could keep prices trading at a lower level for longer.

China's soybean imports hit a record high for the month of September, with the country receiving 12.9 million tons of soybeans, latest data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

From January to October, Brazil is expected to export about 102 million metric tons of soybeans, exceeding the record of 101 million set in 2023, according to data released by the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) on October 8.

The ANEC figures showed that China remains Brazil's largest soybean export destination. As of now, over 79 percent of the country's soybeans have come to China.

Global Times