A fallout shelter sign is seen at a street corner. Photo: VCG

The upcoming expiration of the New START treaty between the US and Russia on Thursday is stoking fears over a new arms race, as it would remove the last remaining mutual limits on the world's two largest nuclear arsenals. The Kremlin warned that the world is heading into a "dangerous" moment, yet US President Donald Trump has expressed little interest in the potential implications of the end of the treaty.

At this critical juncture, the decision on whether to extend the treaty rests with the US. However, Washington's lukewarm stance risks allowing the agreement to lapse, a move that Chinese experts warn could ignite a new round of nuclear arms race, further exacerbating an already turbulent global security environment.

Signed by Russia and the US in 2010, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) is set to expire on Thursday, per Xinhua.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev warned of the danger of letting the last US-Russian nuclear arms control treaty expire this week without any understanding of what comes next, suggesting it would speed up the "Doomsday Clock," Reuters reported on Monday.

Russia made initial overtures about a renewed pact in September, but the Trump administration has not formally responded, US media Politico quoted two people familiar with the negotiations as saying. 

Trump has indicated he will let the treaty expire without accepting an offer from Moscow to voluntarily extend its caps on deployments of strategic nuclear weapons, according to Reuters.

When asked what China's view is on how the absence of any arms control agreement between the two largest nuclear powers will affect global strategic stability in the future, Lin Jian, a spokesperson from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Tuesday that China has noted the constructive proposal Russia put forward regarding the arrangement after New START expires. "We hope the US will actively respond to the proposal and truly uphold global strategic stability," Lin said.

The New START Treaty, which limited the number of deployed nuclear warheads and strategic delivery systems in Russia and the US, entered into force in 2011 with an original 10-year validity period, and was later extended bilaterally to February 5, 2026, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

The treaty is the only remaining arms control pact between the two nations after Washington withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019, per Xinhua.

The expiration of the treaty has garnered attention from global media, with the Guardian said "the milestone will be a death knell for more than five decades of arms control at a time of surging global instability, contributing to a general collapse of the rules-based international order established after the second world war."

Australian's ABC published a report titled "Trump's failure to extend nuclear treaty leaves door 'wide open' to arms race."

An article from Associated Press noted that "the termination of the New START Treaty would set the stage for what many fear could be an unconstrained nuclear arms race."

Whether a new nuclear arms control agreement can be reached now hinges largely on the US as Russia has shown relatively greater initiative, while the US said its strategic nuclear forces need modernization. As a result, Washington has become less proactive, Song Zhongping, a Chinese military affairs analyst, told the Global Times.

Another obstacle to negotiations is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, compounded by deep distrust of Russia among US conservatives, Song said. Many in Washington, he added, believe that if the US does not update its nuclear arsenal it risks losing its nuclear advantage and its ability to deter other states.

Previously the Financial Times reported that Trump wants to maintain the nuclear weapon restrictions and include China in arms control negotiations. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin said that China's nuclear strength is by no means at the same level as that of the US. It is neither fair nor reasonable to ask China to join the nuclear disarmament negotiations at this stage.