A farmer stands barefoot on parched, cracked ground. Photo: VCG

Responding to claims of a "strongest El Nino in 140 years" set to touch the globe, China's National Climate Centre (NCC) said El Nino is expected to develop in May. Meteorological experts say it is too early to call it a "super El Nino" - global models differ - and while regional climate disruption is likely, extreme heat fears may be overblown, China Central Television (CCTV) reported on Sunday. 

According to China's National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC), forecasts based on real-time data and multiple models indicate El Nino conditions may emerge in the central-eastern Pacific by late spring of 2026, with a strong chance of a moderate to strong event forming in autumn and winter. 

This summer, sea temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal in the Bohai Sea, above average in the Yellow Sea and in the northern East China Sea, the NMEFC told the Global Times on Sunday, warning that warmer conditions in the Yellow Sea and northern East China Sea could harm aquaculture and marine ecosystems. 

Since the beginning of this year, three tropical cyclones have formed simultaneously in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres near the equator in the Western Pacific, which is an extremely rare occurrence. Some of these cyclones have even developed near the equator - an area where strong typhoons have been historically rare - potentially bringing risks of extreme rainfall and flooding to local regions. Scientists say these cyclones are linked to developing El Nino conditions rather than isolated events, CCTV reported. 

El Nino refers to a phenomenon in which sea surface water temperatures in tropical waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are higher than normal by a defined threshold and persist for a period of time, typically at least five months, said Zhu Dingzhen, a former chief meteorological services expert at the public meteorological service center of the China Meteorological Administration. El Nino events are generally classified into weak, moderate, strong, and very strong categories, with intensity determined by the degree of warming, CCTV reported. 

At present, divergent results of multiple international climate prediction models indicate it is too early to confirm a "super El Nino" this year, Zhu said. 

Meteorological data show that a total of 22 El Nino events occurred from 1951 to 2024. During El Niño years, coastal countries in South America are prone to suffer from heavy rainfall and flooding, while regions such as Indonesia, eastern Australia, and southeastern Africa are more likely to experience drought, CCTV reported. 

In China, the El Nino effect generally causes regional climate disruptions, such as increased rainfall in southern regions during autumn, and warmer-than-usual conditions in winter, Zhu said. 

Experts say that some online discussions about the "hottest year" and "extreme weather" may be exaggerated or taken out of context, advising the public to view such forecasts with caution, according to CCTV.