Gantry cranes stand in rows at the Taicang port area of Suzhou Port in East China's Jiangsu Province, on June 10, where cargo vessels load and unload in an orderly manner at berths. The port saw steady growth in container and cargo throughput in the first five months of the year. Photo: VCG

The IMF on Wednesday upgraded China's growth outlook by 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 percent for the year 2026 from the previous projection in April, while downgrading its 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 3 percent, according to its latest world economic outlook report.

In the report released on Wednesday, the IMF said that the outlook is uneven, as the shock from the war in the Middle East is weighing on energy importers and vulnerable economies, while AI-driven demand is lifting countries integrated into the global technology value chain.

Global growth in the first quarter of 2026 surpassed expectations, though the upside was mainly concentrated in economies deeply integrated into global technology value chains, according to the IMF report.

The IMF noted that China's economy expanded faster than expected at 8.1 percent (based on the IMF staff's seasonally adjusted estimates), with the expansion driven by front-loaded public infrastructure investment and a surge in high-tech manufacturing and in exports. 

In comparison to China's projected 4.6-percent growth in 2026, the IMF forecast that advanced economies will grow by 1.7 percent, including a 2.3-percent growth in the US and 0.9-percent growth in the Euro area. Meanwhile, emerging market and developing economies are forecast to grow by 3.8 percent, according to the international lender. 

The IMF's move on Wednesday adds to reports by international financial institutions that highlighted China's resilient economic growth, driven by, among others, its robust high-tech sector. 

The World Bank on Tuesday also pointed out in its latest China Economic Update that China's investment in high-tech sectors grew by 4.5 percent year-on-year in January-May, driven by robust AI-related demand at home and abroad. 

The bank projected that China's economic growth will reach 4.4 percent in 2026, which remains unchanged compared with its previous forecast made in December 2025 for the economy, according to a report sent to the Global Times on Tuesday.

China's economy stayed resilient in early 2026, supported by strong high-tech investment and exports, and that growth could exceed current projections, the World Bank said.

The OECD in June also said that China's economy will grow by 4.5 percent in 2026, while global growth will weaken in the time-limited disruption scenario. Growth is set to slow modestly in North America and Europe before a tentative recovery. 

The organization noted strengthened technology-related investment in

several economies in the first quarter of 2026, especially in Asian economies. In China and South Korea, strong GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 was aided by a large increase in production and exports of semiconductor products, it said.

Global Times