Photo: VCG

Editor's Note: 

As the world enters a new period of turbulence and change, global strategic stability is being constantly disrupted. In the year of 2026, what major trends will emerge in the world order and in global political and economic development? The Global Times, in collaboration with renowned experts and scholars from both China and abroad, has selected 10 key terms for our readers' reference.


Start of the 15th Five-Year Plan

Zhang Yugui, dean of the School of Economics and Finance at Shanghai International Studies University

China aims to achieve significant achievements in high-quality development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-30), while maintaining an appropriate growth rate. Achieving these goals over the next five years hinges critically on laying a solid foundation during the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan. From a developmental perspective, this period represents both a pivotal five-year window for China's per capita GDP to reach the level of a mid-level developed country and a strategic window of opportunity for the country to genuinely transition toward an economic growth model driven by domestic demand and consumption.

In the face of a more complex and uncertain external environment, securing a strong start to the 15th Five-Year Plan requires, at the strategic level, a deeper understanding of China's stage of economic development and the underlying laws governing it. It is essential to uphold the expansion of domestic demand as the strategic anchor, promote positive interactions between consumption and investment as well as between supply and demand, and strengthen the endogenous momentum and reliability of the domestic economic cycle. At the same time, after years of responding to various domestic and external shocks, China has accumulated a sufficiently rich set of policy tools. Therefore, in the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, it is necessary not only to continue leveraging investment as a key driver but also to fully unleash the foundational and leading role of consumption.


2026 APEC 'China Year'

Timofei Bordachev, program director of the Valdai Discussion Club

China's 2026 APEC agenda of "Building an Asia-Pacific Community, Promoting Common Prosperity" is a simple and clear plan for international cooperation in a turbulent world.

This is particularly important because the Asia-Pacific region has been driving global economic growth for several decades already. Currently, the development of the Asia-Pacific region is undergoing profound internal changes. These changes are the product of the growth achievements and rapid social change, new trends in investment flows, increased importance of advanced technologies, and the need to respond to demographic challenges. 

Furthermore, both the Asia-Pacific and the world economy face pressures from global economic instability and slowdowns, disruptions in globalization, and protectionist policies by certain major powers.

In other words, China's leadership within APEC faces the task of structuring cooperation so that it addresses both internal development priorities and external challenges faced by regional economies. 

And at the same time, the Asia-Pacific should act as a driver of global development, remaining at the forefront of maintaining peace and stability. In reality, only the agenda of international cooperation can simultaneously solve both internal and external tasks.


Global South solidarity and participatory interactions

Hamed Vafaei, chair of Chinese Language and Literature at the University of Tehran

"Global South solidarity and participatory interactions" have emerged as a prominent and increasingly influential topic in contemporary international discourse. This refers to interactive coalitions centered on the Global South's rising voice. These coalitions are designed to foster deeper cooperation and collective development among developing and emerging countries. Through sustained dialogue, policy coordination and joint initiatives, they aim to enhance connectivity, strengthen institutional capacity and promote shared development outcomes. By advancing cooperation in areas such as economic growth, governance experience and development strategies, these participatory interactions contribute to a more inclusive and balanced framework for global governance.

China occupies a pivotal and irreplaceable position. Through its active engagement in multilateral platforms, China has helped shape spaces where Global South countries can articulate common concerns, coordinate positions and enhance mutual trust. These platforms amplify collective agency and provide mechanisms for joint responses to international issues that directly affect sovereignty, security and development. As these mechanisms mature, they contribute to a stronger sense of solidarity and shared purpose among participating countries.

In this context, a critical dimension of these participatory interactions involves collective responses to actions widely perceived as violations of international law and established norms of state behavior. Ultimately, strengthening Global South solidarity through participatory interactions is seen as essential to promoting a more balanced, just and stable international order.


Resource order

Zhou Chengxiong, a researcher at the Institutes of Science and Development, the Chinese Academy of Sciences

At present, the global resource order is undergoing a profound transformation. With the rise of Global South countries, alongside the strategic contraction of traditional powers of the US and Europe, the old, singular global market system is rapidly disintegrating. Critical mineral resources have become core carriers of the energy transition and technological dominance, and their supply chains have been elevated from economic agendas to geopolitical instruments. Alliance-based strategies led by the US, such as the Minerals Security Partnership, mark a shift in great-power competition from market-based rivalry to control through a security lens, with struggles over resource power now displaying three major tendencies: "Alliance-based" and "self-reliant" competition has become the dominant theme; security logic is replacing market logic; the emerging order will move toward multipolar governance. 

The core feature of the new order is the parallel operation of security and equity. Rules will no longer serve efficiency alone but will increasingly embed environmental protection and social fairness requirements. Although frictions among countries will persist, the rise of the Global South will promote more democratic governance and reduce the absolutization of resource hegemony.


'New Monroe Doctrine'

Anthony Moretti, associate professor at the Department of Communication and Organizational Leadership at Robert Morris University

The Monroe Doctrine is again creating chaos throughout the Americas, forming what is now known as the "new Monroe Doctrine."

So far, it is critical to put that qualifier in place because the White House has hinted at other possible aggressive actions, Venezuela alone has felt the fury of America's wrath. And other leaders - ranging from Canada's prime minister to Cuba's president - are left to wonder if the "new Monroe Doctrine" will lead to an American attack on their countries. 

The US believes that North, Central and South Americas are all places where American control can, and must, be achieved. In some cases, Washington's goals might relate to regime change. In other cases, putting a firm stop to immigrants reaching the US is the priority. And in the rest of cases, simply overtaking a country has been the spoken intent. If what unfolded in Caracas is the first assault on the Americas, one can expect military actions, economic sanctions, cyberattacks and political shenanigans in 2026. There is a long history of Washington meddling in the political affairs of nations in Latin America.


Multipolar revival

Hector Gomez, Spanish geopolitical analyst and translator based in China

"Multipolar revival" captures a defining trend of global affairs in 2026: the accelerating shift away from a US-dominated unipolar order toward a more balanced and diversified international system. This revival is not a sudden rupture, but the result of long-term tensions between global realities and an international order perceived as unequal, rigid and unstable.

Unilateral sanctions, extraterritorial legal measures and the reliance on proxy conflicts to preserve strategic dominance have weakened international trust and undermined global stability. The revival of multipolarity reflects a desire for diversification, balance and greater strategic flexibility in international relations. Against this backdrop, China's diplomatic approach has become an important facilitating factor in the revival of multipolarity.

"Multipolar revival" signals the possibility of a more stable, inclusive and equitable international system - one better aligned with the interests, sovereignty and development aspirations of a diverse global community through cooperation and respect for international norms.


Widening rift between the US and Europe

Mark Logan, former member of the House of Commons of the UK

Since the end of WWII, the whole rationale for Europe has been peace through reconstruction, multilateralism and security under the umbrella of a US that acted as the guarantor, whether through diplomacy, NATO, trade and values. That has been the idea, indeed on many scores, the reality, of "the West." But the coherence of "the West" is in trouble. 

The US no longer wants to underwrite security for Europe. What's more, its direction on Greenland means that Europe is more isolated and perilous than ever. 
In the year ahead, Europe will try to hold on to the steps of the pole that the US has led on as "leader of the free world." It can hope for the best, but preparing for a multipolar world is not just a slogan; it's a must. A robustly optimistic relationship with China can set a fresh path for Europe. What Europe needs is a re-Europeanization - drawing on the past experiences of being technologically innovative and forward-thinking to give genuine hope to people in the troublesome year now behind us.


Japan's turning back of the wheel of history

Hu Jiping, president of the University of International Relations

After WWII, Japan promulgated and implemented the Constitution of Japan in 1947, which stipulates that Japan shall not maintain armed forces or the right of belligerency. This constitution is also known as the "Pacifist Constitution." For decades thereafter, although Japan circumvented constitutional constraints by rebuilding its military under the name of the "Self-Defense Forces," it also established the principle of exclusively defense-oriented policy, the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, and the Three Principles on Arms Exports, thereby setting boundaries on its security policy. Japan also uses this to portray itself as a "peace-loving country." 

However, in the post-Cold War period, Japan made clear adjustments to its policies. In particular, during former prime minister Shinzo Abe's second tenure, Japan legalized the exercise of the right of collective self-defense and rendered its exclusively defense-oriented policy largely nominal. 

Today, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi exhibits even stronger right-wing and nationalist tendencies in both words and deeds than Abe. Her erroneous remarks regarding Taiwan and the attempt to increase the country's defense expenditure and revise the Three Non-Nuclear Principles have shocked the international community. How far Japan will go in 2026 in further breaking through constitutional constraints and revising its national security policy is an issue that the international community must view with the utmost vigilance.


The silver economy innovation era 

Yuan Xin, professor of the School of Economics at Nankai University

China boasts an extremely large aging population, which harbors a vast potential silver economy market. The silver economy era represents a certain future in a changing world; it is destined to be a "silver economy innovation era," characterized by creativity, innovation, construction and entrepreneurship.

Developing the silver economy is the most significant creative endeavor for promoting high-quality development. The silver economy covers a wide range of areas, featuring extended industrial chains, diverse business models and immense potential. It represents a comprehensive innovation in elderly-friendly initiatives that pioneers new approaches to reform and development in the economic and social spheres, cultivates new growth drivers and explores new frontiers of development. 

The silver economy entails constructive measures to improve fairer and more sustainable social public policy systems for elderly-related endeavors, including the social pension security system. It is also an entrepreneurial initiative focused on the diverse needs of the aging population, which will ultimately cultivate cutting-edge products and high-quality service models.


'First year' of systematic AI governance and compliance

Lü Benfu, vice president of the China Institute for Innovation and Development Strategy

As a critical year marking artificial intelligence's transition from technological R&D to large-scale application, 2026 will be the "first year" of true systematic AI governance and compliance. The practical application of AI agents and autonomous driving's leap from Level 3 to Level 4 has emerged as two focal areas, both of which centrally reflect the urgent challenges facing AI governance.

In terms of AI's development, synergistic breakthroughs must be achieved across technological, legal, and ethical dimensions. With rapid technological advancement, the practical application of AI has transitioned from an engineering-dominated phase to a systematic governance phase deeply integrated with social sciences and legal regulations.