Pedestrians in the underground shopping center in the Asakusa district in Tokyo, Japan, on November 16, 2025. Japan's economy contracted for the first time in six quarters. Photo: VCG

Japanese official data released Tuesday showed that Chinese visitors to Japan in December 2025 totaled around 330,000, marking a roughly 45 percent drop from the same period a year earlier, according to Japanese media reports. Nikkei Shimbun noted uncertainty looms ahead due to sluggish growth in Chinese visitors amid tensions between China and Japan. 

Japanese Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Yasushi Kaneko announced the data at a press conference on Monday. Mainichi Shimbun claimed that the drop in the number of Chinese tourists is believed to be influenced by the travel advisory issued by China regarding Japan in November 2025.

Although Kaneko claimed that the number of foreign visitors to Japan in 2025 is expected to be approximately 42.7 million, reaching a new all-time high, Nikkei Shimbun reported Tuesday that “uncertainty looms ahead due to sluggish growth in Chinese visitors amid tensions between Japan and China.” The report noted that in the context of a declining population, the tourism and accommodation industries have become valuable growth sectors.

Also on Tuesday, Honichi Lab, the largest Japanese inbound business media platform, reported that JTB Corporation, Japan's leading travel company, has released its travel market trend forecast for 2026, predicting that the number of visitors to Japan is expected to decline due to reduced demand from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR).

According to Honichi Lab, the reduction in travel demand from the Chinese mainland and HKSAR has been identified as a key factor behind the lower-than-expected number of visitors to Japan in 2026.

Both the mainland and Hong Kong have issued travel alerts regarding trips to Japan, raising concerns about the impact on the Japanese tourism industry, Honichi Lab reported. 

According to data from a Japan-focused accommodation booking site operated by JTB, bookings by Chinese mainland travelers for January to April 2026 are only 50 percent of the same period last year, while bookings from Hong Kong are just 10 percent. Notably, Hokkaido has experienced temporary impacts on group tours, yet remains popular as an individual travel destination, Honichi Lab added.

On January 13, Nikkei Shimbun reported that “the growth in spending by inbound tourists to Japan is losing momentum.”

Citing the preliminary balance of payments statistics for November 2025 released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance on the same day, Nikkei reported that the travel balance surplus stood at 452.4 billion yen, a 19 percent decrease compared to the same month last year. 

“Amid tensions between Japan and China, the number of tourists from China has struggled to grow,” Nikkei said, noting that Japan's travel balance surplus has fallen below the previous year’s level for six consecutive months.

On January 6, Japanese local media outlet Chukyo TV reported that due to the chill in China-Japan relations, Chinese tourists have sharply declined in Takayama city, Gifu Prefecture, and Gamagori city, Aichi Prefecture. For example, according to the report, a confectionery shop in Takayama city reported a 20 percent drop in sales. Also, reduced numbers of Chinese tourists have led to lower hotel rates in Kyoto and Kanazawa, the report noted.

Also, duty-free sales to foreign visitors at four major Japanese department store operators fell by between 10 percent and 20 percent in December from a year earlier, with the companies saying the decline was influenced by the Chinese government's call for citizens to avoid travel to Japan, NHK reported on January 5.

Furthermore, data from a Chinese prominent aviation data platform indicates a similar trend in outbound travel to Japan.

Data provided from Flight Master to the Global Times on January 15 showed that among the top international departure destinations for Chinese travelers during the 2026 Spring Festival travel season, Thailand has reclaimed the first position, while flights to Japan have declined significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 43.7 percent. As of January 15, a total of 2,376 flights from Chinese mainland to Japan during the Spring Festival period have been canceled, with an overall cancellation rate reaching 36 percent.

Japan could lose an estimated $9.59 billion in 2026 if Chinese travelers continue to stay away, with the projected decline in travel from China equivalent to about 0.29 percent of the country's GDP, the Xinhua News Agency reported in November 2025.