Illustration: Chen Xia/GT

Recently, for the first time in over five years, an Indian business delegation quietly set foot on Chinese soil. Though small in scale and mostly comprising startups, this eight-company delegation sent a clear signal that ripples across the geopolitical landscape.

The 2020 border clashes led China-India relations to plummet to a freezing point. Economic decoupling was once the mainstream sentiment in New Delhi. However, this ice-breaking trip shows that absolute decoupling is neither realistic nor sustainable, particularly amid current shifts in the global landscape.

This shift does not stem from a sudden burst of goodwill; rather, it is a calm, rational and pragmatic choice. The "wary rapprochement" currently unfolding between India and China is the inevitable byproduct of external geopolitical crises and internal economic demands acting as joint catalysts.

The flames of war ignited in the Gulf region are relentlessly pounding the global energy lifeline. This global shock hurts India. High energy imports worsen inflation and weaken the rupee. The rupee's fall puts pressure on New Delhi. A weak rupee increases living costs and hinders crucial tech imports needed for India's ambitious target to ensure that electric vehicles account for 30 percent of the country's auto sales by 2030.

However, the key lies in translating slogans into production capacity. India faces the harsh reality of severely deficient charging infrastructure and lagging battery solutions. Looking globally, who can provide the most mature and cost-effective technologies in EVs, energy storage batteries and renewable energy? The answer, self-evidently, is China.

India needs low-cost new energy technologies to weather the energy crisis and achieve industrial upgrading. China needs vast overseas markets to absorb its immense advanced production capacity. This is the purest, most fundamental economic logic. This bidirectional demand is a crucial factor in breaking the ice in bilateral relations between the two countries.

We have witnessed a series of signs indicating a thaw. Yet, we must also remain clear-eyed: this in no way means that India and China are heading toward a traditional alliance. The strategic mutual distrust between the two nations has not been erased. India's wariness toward Chinese capital remains deeply rooted. Consequently, we are seeing a new model of pragmatic cooperation taking shape. Indian firms now favor tech transfer and joint ventures with Chinese firms over direct investment. This aligns with "Make in India," minimizes political risk and provides China with market access.

Despite the pervasive caution, this pragmatic cooperation - based on technological complementarity and market sharing - is generating profound regional impacts. It will tremendously enhance the resilience of the Asian supply chain.

The impact of this on the global landscape will be long-term. The West, particularly the US, has consistently hoped to mold India into a key counterweight against China. They expect the "China Plus One" strategy to maintain their dominance over markets and technology. However, the easing of China-India economic and trade relations shatters this zero-sum fantasy. India's approach of importing Chinese technology to strengthen its own manufacturing sector demonstrates that New Delhi is insisting on strategic autonomy rather than blindly following a Western Cold War script.

From a certain perspective, the strategic interests of the US and the West continually exacerbate geopolitical conflicts, potentially creating a bipolar divide in Asia. However, it is even more likely that the pressures of energy and inflation will push India and China to continue promoting and deepening this pragmatic cooperation. This new geopolitical shift is emerging in Asia and will affect the foreign relations of more countries.

The author is a senior editor with the People's Daily and currently a senior fellow with the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China. dinggang@globaltimes.com.cn. Follow him on X @dinggangchina