Illustration: VCG

Editor's Note:

2026 marks the commencement of China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), a pivotal phase in the nation's medium- to long-term development. A successful venture starts with a good plan and with clear goals set. At this critical juncture, where a profound restructuring of the global order converges with a tipping point in the technological revolution, China's Five-Year Plan is poised to inject momentum and certainty into global development, charting a steady course for the new journey ahead.

In its newly launched "New Blueprint, New Opportunities" series, the Global Times (GT) invites Nobel laureates in economics, former central bank governors, core decision-makers of international organizations and renowned economists from countries with diverse civilizations, different economic systems and stages of development, to deeply analyze how the 15th Five-Year Plan will reshape the underlying logic of China's interaction with the world and to explore the "anchor of certainty" and "new paradigm of development" this plan offers for a turbulent world.

In the eighth installment of the series, GT reporter Xia Wenxin talked to Julio Ceballos (Ceballos), a Spanish business development consultant in China and author of Watching Rice Grow and The Star Calibrator. Ceballos shared the significance of China's five-year plans and explained why other countries could learn from the discipline and consistency of the country's policymaking.

GT: Once you said that if anything defines China's approach to development, it is long-term planning. What role do you believe the five-year plans play in China's economic development? What does China's capacity for long-term planning mean for the world?

Ceballos: The five-year plans play a coordinating role that is often underestimated abroad. They are not just macroeconomic, abstract or theoretical documents. They connect political priorities, industrial policy, infrastructure, social policy, innovation and regional development into one medium-term framework. For businesses, local governments and institutions, they provide direction and a sense of sequence.

That matters because development is not only about having good ideas. It is also about aligning incentives, capital, regulation, talent and implementation over time. China's planning system gives it an unusual capacity to mobilize around long-term objectives while still adjusting tactics when necessary. This combination of continuity in objectives and flexibility in execution is one of the most distinctive features of China's development model.

For the world, this planning capacity means two things. First, it gives partners, investors and competitors a clearer sense of China's direction. In an international environment marked by volatility and short political cycles, predictability becomes an economic asset upon which trust can be built. Second, because China is now such a central actor in trade, industry and green technology, the priorities it sets in its 15th Five-Year Plan increasingly influence global supply chains, investment decisions and technological standards.

GT: Against the backdrop of a turbulent and ever-changing international landscape, are you optimistic about the long-term development of the Chinese economy?

Ceballos: Yes, I am cautiously optimistic about China's long-term development.

My optimism does not come from the idea that China has no challenges. It clearly does. External uncertainty, weak global demand, demographics, real-estate adjustment and the need to rebalance from investment-heavy growth toward more sustainable drivers are all real issues. 

But China's economy also retains very significant structural strengths: industrial scale, infrastructure, qualified workforce, engineering capacity, policy continuity and a very large domestic market.

What gives me confidence is that China is no longer relying on the old formula alone. The policy emphasis today is on resilience, advanced manufacturing, technological upgrading, domestic demand, investment in education and green transition. 

In other words, China is not standing still; it is trying to adapt its growth model to a more complex stage of development. That, in my view, is the right direction.

GT: Can the content or signals of China's 15th Five-Year Plan offer valuable insights or lessons for other economies?

Ceballos: Yes. I think there are several useful lessons, even for countries with very different political systems, values and standards. One lesson is the value of strategic consistency. Other countries do not need to copy China's model to learn from that discipline and consistency. 

A second lesson is that modernization is not only digital or financial. It is also industrial. The 15th Five-Year Plan gives a very clear signal that manufacturing, infrastructure, energy systems, logistics and applied innovation still matter enormously. That is a relevant reminder at a time when many economies are rediscovering the importance of industrial capacity.

A third lesson is that innovation works best when it is pragmatically connected to the real economy. One of the strongest messages in the current plan is the integration of technology and industry. That approach can help reduce the gap between research and commercialization, which is a challenge in many countries.

And finally, there is a lesson in scale and patience. Some transformations, especially in energy, mobility, advanced industry and science, require sustained commitment over many years. China's experience suggests that serious long-term investment in these areas can generate cumulative advantages that are difficult to replicate through short-term policy cycles.

GT: The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes expanding high-level opening-up and deepening international cooperation. What are your expectations for China's continued expansion of high-level opening-up in the future?

Ceballos: My expectation is that China will continue opening up, but in a more structured and selective way.

The current signals point in that direction: broader market access, further opening in services, digital activity, biotechnology, value-added telecom services and healthcare, together with continued work on the business environment and national treatment for foreign enterprises. That suggests China wants opening-up to remain part of its competitiveness strategy, not only part of its external messaging.

From an international perspective, the key issue will be implementation. The more openness is visible, measurable and operational, the more confidence it will create. If China can keep improving market access and predictability while maintaining growth and industrial upgrading, its high-level opening-up will remain one of the most important economic developments in the world economy.

GT: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez paid a visit to China in April. As a Spanish business development consultant who has lived in China for nearly 20 years, what opportunities do you think the 15th Five-Year Plan could bring to cooperation between Spain and China?

Ceballos: I see a very practical opportunity set for Spain and China, especially if cooperation is built on complementarity, reciprocity, mutual trust and long-term value creation.

The first opportunity is in industrial cooperation linked to energy transition. If both sides work well together, Spain can become an important European platform for Chinese industrial cooperation, while ensuring that projects create local jobs, develop suppliers and strengthen technological capabilities in Spain.

The second opportunity is trade upgrading. Spain and China have signed agreements to promote trade and investment. That is a concrete reminder that the bilateral relationship is not only about large industrial projects; it is also about improving market access in sectors where Spain is internationally competitive.

The third opportunity is transport, infrastructure, science and education. These may seem secondary compared with investment headlines, but in reality, they help create the long-term ecosystem that makes economic cooperation and mutual trust more resilient and sophisticated.

In sum, I think Spain's role can be that of a pragmatic European partner. Cooperation should not be understood as dependence but as a process of shared upgrading, with benefits for both sides.