Shanghai Pudong International Airport Photo: VCG

China is set to see a sharp rise in cross-border travel over the upcoming New Year's Day holiday, as immigration management reforms continue to translate into smoother border clearance, authorities said on Monday, with analysts expecting experience-based consumption such as tourism to provide greater support for steady growth of the country's economy in the year ahead.

The average daily volume of inbound and outbound passenger trips nationwide during the holiday, which runs from Thursday to Saturday, is expected to exceed 2.1 million, representing a 22.4 percent increase year-on-year, according to a notice on the official WeChat account of the National Immigration Administration (NIA).

Cross-border passenger traffic is expected to be heavily concentrated at China's leading international aviation hubs. Shanghai Pudong International Airport is projected to handle nearly 100,000 inbound and outbound traveler trips per day, ranking first nationwide during the period, according to official estimates. 

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is expected to handle about 53,000 passenger trips per day, while Beijing Capital International Airport (BCIA) is forecast to see daily flows exceeding 40,000, reflecting robust travel demand during the holiday period. 

Meanwhile, cross-boundary traffic at land ports linking the Chinese mainland with Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions is expected to surge during the holiday, driven in part by a packed calendar of festive events across the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Light festivals, concerts and New Year countdown performances scheduled in the three regions are likely to push up passenger volumes at major land crossings, according to the NIA.

Gongbei Port in Zhuhai, South China's Guangdong Province, is projected to handle average daily inbound and outbound passenger volumes approaching 400,000, according to official estimates. In Shenzhen, several major land ports are expected to see heavy traffic, with Luohu and Futian each expected to handle more than 200,000 cross-boundary traveler trips per day. 

Other key crossings are also expected to experience elevated traffic, with Shenzhen Bay handling about 180,000 passenger trips per day, Liantang about 110,000, and ports linked to Hong Kong's West Kowloon rail terminal close to 100,000, the NIA data indicate.

"Holiday travel usually rises on a seasonal basis, but this year's New Year holiday carries added significance," Song Ding, a research fellow at the China Development Institute, told the Global Times on Monday. He said that China is continuously expanding domestic demand on multiple fronts, and that after a year of policy measures to stabilize consumption and boost domestic demand, the effects are becoming increasingly evident at the start of the new year.

The New Year's Day holiday comes at a key moment at the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), making travel and cross-boundary movement data an important indicator of broader economic trends, Song noted, adding that smoother border procedures and better policy coordination are helping create more supportive conditions for a sustained recovery in consumption.

China has continued to refine its entry-exit and immigration policies through a combination of facilitation and digitalization measures.

In November, the country announced an expansion of its 240-hour visa-free transit policy to more ports of entry, raising the number of eligible ports nationwide from 60 to 65 and allowing travelers from 55 countries to stay in China for up to 10 days without a visa, as part of a package of 10 new immigration measures to facilitate cross-border travel and advance opening-up.

These policies have helped drive steady growth throughout the year. In the third quarter, foreign nationals made 7.246 million visa-free visits to China, up 48.3 percent year-on-year, official data showed. The momentum is also reflected at airports. In 2025, BCIA is estimated to have recorded continued growth, with total flight movements reaching about 430,000 and passenger throughput exceeding 70 million, the airport told the Global Times on Monday.

Amid rising global uncertainty, China's safe and stable social environment remains a strong draw for global visitors and businesses, Song said. "With visa-free policies continuing to expand, cross-border travel is picking up for both inbound and outbound travelers, supporting tourism, services consumption and related industries."