Rare earth Photo:VCG

Japanese media outlets have reported that Japan and the US plan to confirm joint development of rare-earth resources off Minamitorishima at the upcoming summit on March 19, including discussions on establishing a marine mineral development working group. Chinese experts cautioned that while Washington and Tokyo may reach an agreement, the practical feasibility of the initiative remains questionable, as the difficulty and cost of deep-sea rare-earth mining are extremely high, and its significance is more political than industrial.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing for a four-day visit to the US in the coming days, per NHK.. According to a Saturday report by the Sankei Shimbun, which cited diplomatic sources, Takaichi and US President Donald Trump are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding on the marine mineral working group during the summit in the US.
 
The move is aimed at reducing Japan's dependence on Chinese rare-earth supplies and strengthening bilateral supply-chain cooperation, claimed the report. 

China controls more than 90 percent of the global output of refined rare earths, which are used to power appliances from iPhones to electric vehicles, according to a CNN report in October 2025. Media outlets have also reported that due to the high-pressure environment on the seabed, the cost of mining rare earths is 10 times that of mines on land.

Wu Chenhui, an independent rare-earth analyst, noted that without China's industrial chain, the US and Japan would face a lack of downstream buyers, and rebuilding the relevant capacity would take considerable time. He further noted that against the backdrop of the US-Japan alliance, Japan's latest move carries more symbolic political meaning than practical industrial impact.

Tokyo is likely to advance the agreement while prioritizing US interests in order to secure Washington's recognition and support, Zhou Mi, a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Sunday. Zhou noted that in practice, Japan itself has barely developed its own rare-earth resources and process sector, which indicates that the US-Japan collaboration currently lacks mature extraction technologies and commercial feasibility.

Previously, the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology claimed that Japan had recently successfully collected mud containing rare-earth elements from the seabed in waters off the country's easternmost Minamitori Island, the Xinhua News Agency reported in early February.

"We've noted that there have been similar reports in Japan in recent years," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said in response to Japanese press inquiries on seabed rare-earth mining on February 3.

The Sankei Shimbun further noted that on October 28, 2025, Japan and the US signed a key minerals supply cooperation document. In February, Takaichi claimed in a radio program regarding Minamitorishima rare-earth mud that she hoped the US could participate and accelerate progress. The report also indicated that Japan plans to seek US financial support, joint investment, and pre-arranged contracts to sell processed rare-earth elements to the US.

Although the two countries have some rare-earth industry foundations, they lack a complete industrial chain even if a cooperation agreement is reached, according to Wu. China holds patented cascade extraction technology, the core method for achieving high-purity rare earths, and most rare-earth mining and processing equipment is also supplied by Chinese firms. Without this process, the US and Japan would struggle to produce rare earths at the purity levels required for key applications, he said. 

According to a report by Rare Earth Exchanges on January 18, 2026, Japan remains 71.9 percent dependent on Chinese rare-earth imports despite diversification efforts, with potential disruptions estimated to cost up to about $17 billion annually. 

Wu also noted that frequent political turnover and policy uncertainty also weaken the long-term drive needed for such industrial development in Japan and the US.

China announced in October 2025 that effective November 8, 2025, exports of items related to superhard materials, rare-earth equipment and raw materials, five medium and heavy rare-earth elements including holmium, lithium batteries, and synthetic graphite anode materials would require official approval, according to the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM).

The measure is in accordance with laws and regulations, which conforms to international common practice and is in line with better safeguarding China's national security and interests, and better fulfilling its international obligations, such as its commitment to non-proliferation, the ministry said. 

Against this backdrop, the US and its allies have been vying for an upper hand in critical mineral supply chains. 

The US in February 2026 unveiled plans to consolidate allies into a preferential trade bloc for critical minerals. However, one month later, some countries, including Japan, France, and Canada, were pursuing alternative arrangements to US-led frameworks, Reuters reported on March 7.

Additionally, another Reuters report on March 10 said that Japanese rare-earth supplier Japan Australia Rare Earths had secured a renewed supply agreement with Australia's Lynas Rare Earths, committing to purchase 5,000 tons of neodymium-praseodymium annually and half of Lynas' heavy rare-earth oxide output, further strengthening Japan's access to critical rare-earth materials.

Gao Lingyun, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, noted that Japan's attempt — it is simultaneously building a supply chain outside the US with countries such as Canada and France while actively negotiating with Washington -- shows that Tokyo recognizes that relying solely on the US for the entire industrial chain carries a risk of being "choked off," prompting a strategy of diversification and multiple bets. 

"Even with multiple cooperation initiatives, Japan will struggle to achieve meaningful results without mastering final rare-earth refining capabilities and related technologies, Gao said.