Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

Editor's Note:

2026 marks the commencement of China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), a pivotal phase in the nation's medium- to long-term development. A successful venture starts with a good plan and with clear goals set. At this critical juncture, where a profound restructuring of the global order converges with a tipping point in the technological revolution, China's five-year plan is poised to inject momentum and certainty into global development, charting a steady course for the new journey ahead.

In its newly launched "New Blueprint, New Opportunities" series, the Global Times (GT) invites Nobel laureates in economics, former central bank governors, core decision-makers of international organizations and renowned economists from countries with diverse civilizations, different economic systems and stages of development to deeply analyze how the 15th Five-Year Plan will reshape the underlying logic of China's interaction with the world and to explore the "anchor of certainty" and "new paradigm of development" this plan offers to a turbulent world.

In the fourth installment of the series, GT reporter Wang Wenwen talked to Elitza Mileva (Mileva), the World Bank's lead economist for China. Mileva shared her opinions on China's strong fundamentals in its next five-year development and the insights China's 15th Five-Year Plan can offer to other countries.

GT: During the just-concluded two sessions, China set a GDP growth target of 4.5-5 percent for 2026. How do you see the rationality behind this growth target? 

Mileva: When we look at China's growth performance, it helps to start with what has been built over the long run. Over four decades, China has established a strong economic foundation.

Now the focus needs to shift toward achieving a meaningful medium-term transition. China is at a stage where productivity gains, innovation and consumption need to become the main drivers of growth. That shift is underway, yet it faces headwinds. 

The opportunity now lies in policies that reinforce household and business confidence and raise productivity by strengthening social protection, improving resource allocation and providing clearer, more predictable conditions for private firms. If China can accelerate that transition, its underlying strengths - scale, talent and technological capacity - position it well for more balanced, higher-quality growth.

In this context, a GDP growth target of 4.5-5 percent for 2026 provides flexibility to address financial risks and the above structural challenges while maintaining macroeconomic stability.

GT: At the closing meeting of the fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress last week, Chinese lawmakers approved the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development. How do you assess China's growth trajectory during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, particularly amid global uncertainties such as geopolitical shifts and supply chain restructuring? 

Mileva: China is entering the next five-year period with strong fundamentals, as discussed above, but also at a point where the sources of growth are changing. In higher-income economies, growth depends more on productivity and household consumption and less on investment. Therefore, the next five years will be a period of economic transition. In addition, three long-term trends are presenting both opportunities and risks to the outlook: demographic change, new technologies such as artificial intelligence and the green transition. The pace of growth is likely to moderate but the quality of growth will matter more: how much is driven by productivity, how broad-based it is and how well it translates into rising household incomes.

A successful transition is one that supports job-rich growth in modern services and new industries, while helping connect workers to better jobs through training, social protection and an enabling environment for private firms.

GT: How has China been able to effectively translate its strategic resolve into concrete and actionable outcomes?

Mileva: As the next five years are shaped by overlapping transitions in demographics, technology and decarbonization, policies could reduce adjustment risks while unlocking new sources of productivity and employment. In this respect, two policy directions are especially consequential: investing in people and improving the efficiency of resource allocation. China has emphasized both priorities in high-level policy guidance.

Translating high-level guidance into concrete policy can rest on three pillars: skills, health and social protection. Education and training could be strengthened to meet the demand for digital literacy, critical thinking and socio-emotional competencies. Lifelong learning and flexible work arrangements can also promote productive longevity and help offset demographic pressures. Stronger health and eldercare systems could reduce the risk of non-communicable diseases and meet rising long-term care needs. Finally, a strengthened social safety net that protects workers more evenly across regions and employment types, including migrant and flexible workers, can reduce precautionary savings, support consumption and facilitate economic restructuring. This agenda also raises a fiscal question - keeping the fiscal system in step with new spending needs. 

On the efficient allocation of resources, the priority is to raise productivity by enabling capital, land and labor to move toward higher-return uses. That points to transparent and predictable regulation and financial-sector practices that price risk and return more consistently. Restoring private sector confidence is important, as private firms generate 80 percent of urban employment.

Institutionally, China's development track record has rested on strong fundamentals and long policy horizons, combined with an ability to coordinate across levels of government and translate strategy into implementation through experimentation and adaptation. Those strengths have supported major transitions in the past, such as the elimination of extreme poverty, and they remain a material asset for managing the next transition.

GT: The World Bank has accumulated considerable experience supporting China's rural revitalization initiatives. Over the next five years, how does the bank plan to contribute to China's goals of inclusive growth and common prosperity, especially in terms of knowledge sharing, technical assistance and project cooperation?

Mileva: The World Bank Group's partnership with China has always evolved alongside the country's development priorities. At each stage, the question has been the same: How can growth be translated into better lives? In the next five years, the World Bank Group will continue to support China's shift toward a high-quality, sustainable growth model.

One area is strengthening the foundations for productivity-led growth. This includes reforms to remove constraints to efficient resource allocation. A second area is investing in people through institutional reforms in health, skills and social protection systems. A third area is supporting the institutional architecture for green and resilient growth. Finally, mobilizing private capital runs across all priorities.

GT: From an international standpoint, what valuable insights or lessons do you think China's 15th Five-Year Plan can offer to other economies, particularly in areas such as sustainable development, technological innovation and long-term strategic planning?

Mileva: China still draws on global experience, but it is also willing to share what it has learned from managing large transitions at scale with other developing countries facing similar development challenges. 

For instance, in December 2024, China and the World Bank Group launched the Global Center for Ecological Systems and Transitions. The center will bring China's experience in ecosystem protection and restoration to a global platform. The emphasis is on implementation: what works, how much it costs and how to align environmental outcomes with development needs.

Beyond this new center, South-South knowledge exchange facilitated by the World Bank Group draws on China's reform experience and tailors it to local needs. For example, study tours and exchanges have been organized for officials from other developing countries to learn from China's approaches to rural development, water management and poverty reduction.