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China's latest monitoring shows that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific have continued to warm abnormally since spring 2026, with the El Nino phenomenon entering a rapid development stage, potentially forming a super El Nino that rivals 1997-98 record and requiring precautions against climate and maritime disasters, China Media Group's CNR.cn reported on Sunday, citing the Ministry of Natural Resources.

The current El Nino event has shown typical warming characteristics, according to the center. Abnormal warming first emerged this spring along the coast of Peru in the eastern equatorial Pacific and expanded westward. Before surface temperatures rose, a large amount of warm water had already accumulated beneath the surface in the western equatorial Pacific, then moved eastward and rose to the surface, laying the foundation for the event's development.

Compared with previous events in the same period, the current intensity of abnormal sea surface warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has already exceeded that of the 1997-98 super El Nino event. Since late May, westerly winds over the western equatorial Pacific have strengthened and continued moving eastward, while atmospheric convection has shifted to the central Pacific and intensified significantly. The movement of the ocean and atmosphere has accelerated the event's continued strengthening.

Experts from the forecasting center said the El Nino event is expected to have significant and lasting impacts on China's climate, marine ecosystems and disaster prevention efforts.

During El Nino event, fewer tropical cyclones are expected to form over the western Pacific and the South China Sea, but those that do develop are likely to originate farther east and south, and be stronger in intensity. Focus should be put on disasters caused by strong typhoons, including disastrous waves, storm surges and seawater intrusion, experts said.

For climate impacts, North China, Northeast China and Jiangnan regions are expected to receive more rainfall than usual during this summer and autumn, while the middle reaches of the Yangtze River may see less precipitation. The winter is forecast to be generally warmer than normal.

Sea temperatures in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and northern East China Sea are expected to remain relatively high, increasing the risk of localized marine heatwaves. Such conditions could threaten aquaculture and worsen coral bleaching.

Experts warned that climate impacts in the year following an El Nino event are often more pronounced. In the summer of 2027, the Yangtze River Basin is expected to see abnormally high precipitation, with an elevated risk of extreme flooding and severe pressure on flood control efforts, CNR.cn reported. Mountainous and hilly areas should also prepare for flash floods and geological disasters triggered by heavy rainfall, experts said. 

In 1998, abnormal rainfall and floods occurred in multiple river basins of China, including a severest one on the Yangtze River. More than 4,000 were killed and 200 million people were affected, per reports from Xinhua. 

The El Nino event is expected to cause the East China Sea's marine carbon sink capacity to weaken, while prolonged high temperatures in the South China Sea could continue disrupting the stability of coastal ecosystems.

Authorities should make early arrangements for flood control preparations, marine ecological monitoring and disaster prevention measures to minimize risks from potential secondary disasters, experts said.

Global Times