Illustration: Xia Qing/GT

The South Korean container ship PanStar Acro returned to Busan recently after a 50-day voyage. This marks the first time a South Korean container ship has completed a round trip along the Arctic route in a manner close to commercial operations. It represents a crucial endeavor for South Korea based on its own strategic needs.

South Korea's accelerated push into the Arctic shipping route is driven by three main considerations.

First, it is part of the Lee Jae-myung administration's domestic development strategy. The Arctic shipping route is not merely a shipping policy; it also serves to alleviate overconcentration in the Seoul metropolitan area and foster a new growth pole in the southern region. South Korea hopes to use Busan as a hub to drive the formation of a "southern maritime metropolitan area" encompassing Ulsan and South Gyeongsang Province, further concentrating resources such as ports, shipping, shipbuilding, finance, insurance and maritime services in the southeastern region. Therefore, South Korea is eager to gain experience with the route, establish a stable cargo base and fleet system and thereby secure an advantageous position in future competition over Arctic shipping regulations and logistics hubs.

Second, recent developments in the Middle East have also influenced South Korea's decision-making regarding the Arctic shipping route. South Korea is a typical export-oriented economy, with industries such as automotive, chemicals, semiconductors and shipbuilding highly dependent on global logistics. Should traditional shipping routes be blocked for an extended period, the impact would rapidly ripple through the real economy. 

Originally, South Korea had strategically positioned itself for the Arctic shipping route primarily out of considerations for balanced regional development, the construction of the Busan hub and maritime competitiveness. At present, this strategy has gained additional significance in terms of supply chain security and strategic contingency planning. South Korean media have also linked the recent situation in the Middle East and the risks in the Strait of Hormuz to the Arctic route. It is foreseeable that South Korea will continue to increase its investment in the future, as its value as an alternative route for South Korea at "critical moments" is of strategic importance.

Third, the evolving landscape of Asia-Europe maritime transport and competition in the maritime industry serve as key driving forces. The trial voyage of the PanStar Acro marks South Korea's first attempt to verify the feasibility of future regular liner services using container ships, actual cargo and port operations. The South Korean government plans to use the data from this trial to continue testing business models and launch regular services around 2030, gradually expanding vessel sizes thereafter to achieve economies of scale by around 2035. 

If the Arctic shipping route gradually matures, projects such as green-powered vessels, polar navigation, port services, marine insurance and polar scientific research are likely to follow. For South Korea, this is a crucial step toward extending its existing industrial strengths into the new Arctic shipping industry chain. It also serves as a major fulcrum for securing route participation rights, port hub rights and growth in the maritime industry during the future era of Arctic shipping.

Of course, a single test voyage is far from sufficient proof that the Arctic shipping route is ready for full-scale commercial operation. Sea ice, extreme weather, high insurance premiums, the cost of ice-class vessels, search-and-rescue capabilities, seasonal navigation restrictions and the relevant policy environment may still offset some of the advantages gained from the shorter distance. This test voyage itself was also affected by ice conditions and weather. What South Korea is doing now is essentially staking out a position in advance, before the business model has fully taken shape.

China and South Korea can certainly strengthen cooperation on the Arctic shipping route. China possesses a vast market, abundant cargo sources and extensive experience in Arctic shipping, while South Korea holds advantages in marine equipment and shipping services. It is entirely possible for both sides to jointly reduce the costs of commercializing the Arctic shipping route.

Should the two major Northeast Asian maritime and manufacturing powers forge stable cooperation, it could not only reshape the shipping map between Asia and Europe, but also trigger a chain of repercussions for East Asian port competition, industrial chain layout and even the geoeconomic architecture across Eurasia.

The author is a visiting research fellow at Seoul National University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn